Spleen familiar drop rates

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Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Fred Nefler » Tue May 03, 2011 8:21 pm

At about 1:20 PM pacific time:

System Message: A new trivial update has been posted: Because of OMINOUS FOREBODING, the Badger, Llama, Pixie, and Sandworm will now drop their goodies more reliably. Scared yet?

System Message: Also the Rogue Program.


So we need to figure these out. Again.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Fred Nefler » Tue May 03, 2011 8:47 pm

Code: Select all
Tokens:
#   Combats to   From last
1   2      --
2   5      3
3   6      1
4   10      4
5   21      11

Code: Select all
Gongs (no motorcycle):
#   Combats to   From last
1   1      --
2   2      1      
3   8      6
4   13      5      
5   20      7

Code: Select all
Agua
#   Combats to   From last
1   2      --
2   4      2      
3   9      5      
4   15      6      
5   23      8      

Code: Select all
Absinthe
#   Combats to   From last
1   3      --      
2   6      3      
3   7      1      
4   10      3      
5   38      28

Pixie possibly not correctly updated yet?

EDIT: Yep, pixie hasn't been updated yet.
EDIT 2: And I'm told the pixie is now adhering to the new mechanism.

Presumably they've been made to work like the mimc, with a hard cap of 11 or 12 turns between drops, but we need a lot more data.
Last edited by Fred Nefler on Wed May 04, 2011 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: clarify
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Darzil » Tue May 03, 2011 9:11 pm

And remember to only count combat turns when submitting results!
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby stupac2 » Tue May 03, 2011 10:53 pm

My guess is mimic, but twice as likely. It'll just need lots of data and then plots.

The real question is if every drop is the same.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Wed May 04, 2011 1:11 am

Huh. Fun. Maybe i'll add the pixie into my rotation, bump all of them up to collecting 5 per day, and see what happens. Also, I should consider getting around to creating something where people can upload logs.

Also, I might as well share this: My aftercore adventuring script. Which farms up with the rogue program, llama, sandworm, pixie, and buggedbear. Also, when using the Llama, be sure to specify if you're using the Motorcycle or not.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Fred Nefler » Wed May 04, 2011 3:21 am

RoyalTonberry wrote:Huh. Fun. Maybe i'll add the pixie into my rotation, bump all of them up to collecting 5 per day, and see what happens. Also, I should consider getting around to creating something where people can upload logs.

Also, I might as well share this: My aftercore adventuring script. Which farms up with the rogue program, llama, sandworm, pixie, and buggedbear. Also, when using the Llama, be sure to specify if you're using the Motorcycle or not.

Oh, right, I wasn't. Hookah for everything. Edited my post for extra clarity on the data.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Wed May 04, 2011 4:37 am

Tracking spreadsheet. I'll figure out how to make the borders and whatnot look all pretty later.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Munkee79 » Wed May 04, 2011 8:05 am

(# of combats per drop)
Agua: 4-9-1-4-5
Token: 2-2-5-12-4

If there is a neater way I should be submitting this, lemme know.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby lostcalpolydude » Wed May 04, 2011 12:11 pm

Turns since last drop:

sandworm: 3/2/2/8/5
program: 2/4/2/3/2
llama (no motorcycle): 4/6/4/5/7
badger: 2/4/1/12/1
pixie: 3/7/1/2/2
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby jesusisagurl » Wed May 04, 2011 1:21 pm

Turns to get each:

Rogue Program
5/2/2/8/3

Llama
8/2/3/7/1
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Wiseworm » Wed May 04, 2011 1:29 pm

sandworm: 3/2/1/9/4
rogue program: 4/1/2/5/4
llama (NO zen motorcycle): 1/6/5/2/5
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Darzil » Wed May 04, 2011 7:56 pm

Mailing my logs to RT as requested, rather than updating here.
Last edited by Darzil on Mon May 09, 2011 11:30 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Wiseworm » Thu May 05, 2011 4:30 pm

wiseworm 5/5/11

sandworm: 4/2/6/10/10
rogue program: 7/1/3/1/4
llama (no zen): 1/2/7/5/2
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Munkee79 » Thu May 05, 2011 7:27 pm

Agua: 2/2/9/10/4
Token: 1/9/3/3/6
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Fred Nefler » Thu May 05, 2011 8:11 pm

Code: Select all
Program
#   Combats to   From last
1   3             3
2   10            7
3   13            3
4   15            2
5   16            1
Code: Select all
Llama (no motorcycle)
#   Combats to   From last
1   1             1
2   3             2
3   6             3
4   10            4
5   20            10
Code: Select all
Pixie
#   Combats to   From last
1   5             5
2   10            5
3   12            2
4   19            7
5   27            8
Code: Select all
Sandworm
#   Combats to   From last
1   2             2
2   6             4
3   8             2
4   12            4
5   19            7
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Wiseworm » Fri May 06, 2011 5:13 pm

wiseworm 5/6/11

sandworm: 3/4/1/6/1
rogue program: 2/1/2/6/4
llama (no zen): 1/3/5/13/8
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Fred Nefler » Fri May 06, 2011 8:51 pm

Code: Select all
Program
#   Combats to   From last
1   1             1
2   3             2
3   10            7
4   17            7
5   25            8
Code: Select all
Pixie
#   Combats to   From last
1   3             3
2   4             1
3   10            6
4   15            5
5   20            5
Code: Select all
Sandworm
#   Combats to   From last
1   4             4
2   7             3
3   14            7
4   20            6
5   24            4
Code: Select all
Zen Llama
#   Combats to   From last
1   5             5
2   7             2
3   9             2
4   12            3
5   17            5
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby lostcalpolydude » Sat May 07, 2011 2:19 am

program: 3/8/2/3/4
sandworm: 4/4/5/4/7
llama (no cycle): 7/1/9/2/5
badger: 1/1/2/7/7
pixie: 2/6/3/3/7
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sat May 07, 2011 6:15 pm

Some charts based on the assumption that the spleen familiars are working similarly to the Stocking Mimic.

I haven't incorporated any data other than what's in the spreadsheet i posted earlier (this one), this is because I did not parse the data that other people are providing, and it's very hard to know how the data was collected, and if it's accurate. Spleen familiar drop data is notoriously annoying to gather correctly.

I'd be happy to parse through logs if you guys want to provide them. Just talk to me in-game on how to get them to me.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sun May 08, 2011 8:24 pm

My current working theory is that the familiars base rates have not changed, but that they now get +10% drop chance per combat that they have not yet dropped an item. We need a lot more data, but that's what it's leaning towards.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:06 am

neeeecccrrroooooo.

I spent an enormous amount of turns just farming all 5 items per day with my various spleen familiars over the past year.

Shiny charts
raw-ish data (turn counts to get each drop)
processed spleen data

The processed data is a Multiset. For example, with the following data:
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints)
Drop #1: [1(64), 2(42), 3(40), 4(46), 5(33), 6(24), 7(15), 8(10), 9(1), 10(2), 11(1)]
Drop #2: [1(50), 2(45), 3(43), 4(45), 5(30), 6(26), 7(26), 8(7), 9(5), 10(1)]

This means that Drop #1 for the Pixie came on the first turn of using it 64 times. The second turn of using it 42 times, and so on.
It also means that Drop #2 came on the first turn after using it but already having gotten the first drop 50 times. Then came on the second turn (after already using it to get the first drop) 45 times, and so on.

These represent how the charts on that page are built. So drop 1 came on the first turn 64 / 278 = 23.02% of the time. Drop 1 came on the second turn 42 / 214 = 19.63% of the time. The reason we subtract 64 from drop 2's total is because 64 of the 278 times, there was no turn 2 (because the item was already received on turn 1). That's why the data gets spiky further to the right on the graphs, there are fewer datapoints at those values. Notice that for Drop #1, it only went out to 10 turns 3 times (since the amount of time at 10+ turns adds up to 3), and 11 turns 1 time.

The formula for spleen familiar drop rates is probably the same base rates as before, but now, every turn that you do not get a drop, the chance rises by 5%.
So for a pixie's first drop, there is a 20%? 25%? chance of getting the item, for the sake of argument let's choose 25%. Then on the second turn, it rises to 30%, third turn it's 35%, etc.. This would hit 100% chance on the 16th turn. It'd be really really unlikely to ever get to the point where you don't see the first drop after 15 turns though (approximately 1 out of 25 million attempts to get the first drop would result in a failure to get the first drop before the 16th turn).
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:39 am

Also, for the sake of completeness, and because I had a ton of the data sitting around for it now:
Shiny chart for the mimic's drop rate as it increases after not giving you an item.

The processed data for the chart, in the form of a multimap, showing how often a drop happened N turns after the previous drop:
Familiar: Mimic (6633 datapoints)
Drop #1: [1(348), 2(336), 3(628), 4(847), 5(900), 6(886), 7(775), 8(698), 9(507), 10(315), 11(173), 12(121), 13(53), 14(26), 15(14), 16(5), 17(1)]

Definitely feel comfortable calling this 5% to drop on the first or second turn, and then +5% per turn after that until an item drops.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby top1214 » Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:53 am

I'm having a hard time reading the llama charts.

Does the motorcycle add 5% to drop rate or something simple?
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sun Dec 02, 2012 8:49 am

top1214 wrote:I'm having a hard time reading the llama charts.

Does the motorcycle add 5% to drop rate or something simple?

The basic llama (no motorcycle) has very few datapoints in it.

I'm not really sure what exactly the motorcycle does.
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby houeland » Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:28 pm

RoyalTonberry wrote:I spent an enormous amount of turns just farming all 5 items per day with my various spleen familiars over the past year.

> might interest you, quite a bit of data. Let me know if I got something wrong on the math or analysis: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=261&p=4316#p4316

Wooo! =)

I ran some numbers on it for you:

Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.2307 most likely base rate
Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.1879 most likely base rate
Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.1369 most likely base rate
Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.0965 most likely base rate
Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => 0.0858 most likely base rate
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.1584 most likely base rate
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.1362 most likely base rate
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.1041 most likely base rate
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.0627 most likely base rate
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => -0.0239 most likely base rate
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.1877 most likely base rate
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.1648 most likely base rate
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.106 most likely base rate
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.0413 most likely base rate
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => 0.0452 most likely base rate
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.2687 most likely base rate
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.2031 most likely base rate
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.1446 most likely base rate
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.102 most likely base rate
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => 0.0422 most likely base rate
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.1867 most likely base rate
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.1399 most likely base rate
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.1038 most likely base rate
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.0435 most likely base rate
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => 0.0492 most likely base rate
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) drop 1, +5% per missed drop => 0.2564 most likely base rate
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) drop 2, +5% per missed drop => 0.1849 most likely base rate
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) drop 3, +5% per missed drop => 0.1365 most likely base rate
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) drop 4, +5% per missed drop => 0.1149 most likely base rate
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) drop 5, +5% per missed drop => 0.0603 most likely base rate
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby Darzil » Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:03 am

houeland wrote:
RoyalTonberry wrote:I spent an enormous amount of turns just farming all 5 items per day with my various spleen familiars over the past year.

> might interest you, quite a bit of data. Let me know if I got something wrong on the math or analysis: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=261&p=4316#p4316

Wooo! =)

I ran some numbers on it for you:


Which looks like pretty much the old spaded rates plus 5% per missed drop, given TPTB's liking for 5% increments :

Older spleen droppers - Llama, Pixie, Sandworm = 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5% (Motorcycle gives +5%)
Newer droppers - Program, Xenomorph = 25%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby houeland » Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:28 pm

Darzil wrote:Which looks like pretty much the old spaded rates plus 5% per missed drop, given TPTB's liking for 5% increments :

Older spleen droppers - Llama, Pixie, Sandworm = 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5% (Motorcycle gives +5%)
Newer droppers - Program, Xenomorph = 25%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%

Assuming 20%/15%/10%/5%/5% and 25%/20%/15%/10%/5% and 25%/20%/15%/10%/10% are the possible base rates (strong assumption since it'll then *always* just pick between one of those three for this calculation, but still) and each missed drop increases the chance by the same amount, the data says:

Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (279 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.1) base rates, +0.0467 per missed drop
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) most likely (0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05) base rates, +0.0453 per missed drop
Familiar: Pixie (278 datapoints) most likely (0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05) base rates, +0.0499 per missed drop
Familiar: Program (304 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) base rates, +0.0514 per missed drop
Familiar: Sandworm (294 datapoints) most likely (0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05) base rates, +0.0503 per missed drop
Familiar: Xenomorph (246 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) base rates, +0.0517 per missed drop
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:28 pm

Added about a year's worth of data. Should be the same format as above, with the basic turn-level data, and then the multimap of what each datapoint actually is, as well as the charts for a visual representation.
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... umb-0.html

All of the data that I have all combined together (this is what is shown on the charts):
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/spleendata.txt
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... cessed.txt

Only the data that I generated since the last time I updated (2012-12-04 through 2013-11-02)
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... a_2013.txt
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... cessed.txt

Eleron ran the numbers for me, with the tool he already had for determining base rates:
Familiar: Badger_badge (327 datapoints) most likely (0.35, 0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Collective (304 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Groose (327 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.15, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Kloop (327 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Lama_motorcycle (605 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.1) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Llama (23 datapoints) most likely (0.15, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.0) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Pixie (604 datapoints) most likely (0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Program (630 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Sandworm (620 datapoints) most likely (0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
Familiar: Xenomorph (572 datapoints) most likely (0.25, 0.2, 0.15, 0.1, 0.05) with multiple of 0.05 base rates and +0.05 per missed drop
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Re: Spleen familiar drop rates

Postby RoyalTonberry » Sat Apr 23, 2016 8:02 am

another 2.5 years worth of data, on top of the data I already had.

http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... umb-0.html

The data for only 2013-11-03 through 2016-04-23
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... 4-2016.txt
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... cessed.txt

Added all data to previous:
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/spleendata.txt
http://ben.bloomroad.com/kol/spleenfam/ ... cessed.txt

Still looks like everything lines up with the previous values, as one might expect. Nifty.

So the probability of getting a drop on turn N with X% + 5% per turn that you haven't gotten a drop comes out to some pretty long formulas, but nothing that a spreadsheet can't handle.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Basically appears to come out to (unless my math is incorrect):
with 25% base rate +5% per turn, average is 3.03 turns
with 20% base rate +5% per turn, average is 3.42 turns
with 15% base rate +5% per turn, average is 3.91 turns
with 10% base rate +5% per turn, average is 4.52 turns
with 5% base rate +5% per turn, average is 5.29 turns.
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